It’s been very clear since before the end of the 2011 season that the Cubs are lacking in a variety of departments at the major league level. They were outscored by their opponents by 102 runs this year, finishing roughly middle of the National League pack in run scoring (654, thanks in large part to drawing the second fewest walks in MLB) while allowing the third most runs in the league (756). So as difficult as run scoring was at times, clearly, run prevention proved to be the even tougher task for this team. A combination of injuries to the pitching staff and some downright awful defensive play were the roots of this problem. Losing 40% of the rotation to the disabled list inside of week one obviously hurt, and among all major league teams, the Cubs allowed the fifth highest percentage of balls in play to result in hits. Oh, and they committed the most errors in either league.
While the shortcomings of this team are fairly obvious, diagnosing the right solution to the problem isn’t necessarily that easy. If you were to ask ten different people very familiar with the organization what the best route to take this offseason is, I honestly think you might hear ten unique plans of action in response. Part of that is because baseball fans are opinionated people and baseball is a crazy game, but some of that also has to do with what a mess Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer recently inherited. Even after freeing up the payroll space previously occupied by Aramis Ramirez, Kosuke Fukudome, and Carlos Silva, there are still burdensome contracts on the books for next season and beyond. Of greater concern, though, is the lack of quality talent currently on the roster and the uncertainty of what immediate steps ought to be taken to resolve this.
One thing everyone can agree on is that the Cubs need a third baseman. Unlike first base, which is routinely mentioned as a position that must be addressed this offeason, third is one position they obviously have no choice but to go and get a new player for. This team is gonna have to improve at a number of positions before they can be taken for serious contenders, but even if it’s just in the form of a stopgap player, this is the place to start. Aramis had a terrific career in Chicago, and is almost indisputably the second best third baseman in the history of the organization, but I think the Cubs are, for a variety of reasons, making the right decision letting him walk this offseason. Unfortunately, the guy who was supposedly his heir apparent, Josh Vitters, has been very slow to develop since being taken third overall in the 2007 draft. In his second taste of double-A ball, he OPS’ed just .770 and he may not even be a third baseman for much longer. So without any legitimate options in house, the Cubs’ new braintrust will have to look externally for a solution to this problem.
Ramirez is far and away the best name on an extremely thin list of free agent third baseman this offseason, so it’s pretty much a given that this external option will have to be acquired via trade. This is where speculation is bound to run wild, since the Cubs really haven’t been linked to anyone in trade talks just yet. There are a ton of factors that have to be accounted for when guessing at trade possibilites, which is why this is usually a difficult exercise, but at the risk of looking foolish if/when the Cubs go a completely different direction, I suggest Jed Hoyer call up his former colleagues in San Diego and ask about Chase Headley. A career .269/.343/.392 hitter who hasn’t played third base exclusively might not seem like the ideal guy to target, but there’s some context we have to take into consideration in his case.
Headley, a switch-hitter three years away from free agency, was Baseball America’s 32nd best prospect prior to the ’08 season. He became an everyday player in ’09 after impressing in his first taste of the majors the previous year, but since then he’s learned just how tough it is to hit in San Diego. After hitting 33 home runs in his last 692 minor league ABs, he’s managed to go deep just 36 times in 1,883 big league ABs. In fact, this year Headley managed just four home runs before missing essentially the last two months of the season with a broken finger. It’s important to understand two things with regard to his power production, though. First, the 33 homers he hit toward the end of his minor league career came in the Texas and Pacific Coast Leagues, which are both big-time hitters’ leagues. This, in addition to the spacious dimensions of Petco Park makes it easy to understand how he’s seen as a disappointment in the power department.
Headley is also just a career .269 hitter, which has contributed to his middling offensive numbers. But the obvious disclaimer to all this is that, of course, he takes his home ABs at Petco Park. And though he’s a switch hitter, Headley has been considerably better from the left side of the plate, which makes him kind of a mismatch for his home park. Switch hitters take most of their ABs from the left side of the plate for fairly obvious reasons, and Petco Park is especially unforgiving to lefties. For his career, Headley has been 12% below league average offensive production (88 wRC+) in 997 home plate appearances. Interestingly enough, he’s got 120 more plate appearances in road games for his career, so it’s safe to say the Padres are fully aware of all this.
To some this may just sound like a convenient and easy argument to make, but it seems clear that Chase Headley would stand to benefit just as much, if not more than the next guy who escapes Petco Park. His power numbers toward the end of his minor league career may have raised expectations a little bit higher than they should have been, but in
a different environment, he could settle in as something like a 15 home run threat annually. Also, he’s always shown the ability to draw a walk, so all told, Headley has enough offensive ability that he could be a really nice buy low opportunity.
The question is how low his perceived value actually is. Because for as much of a misfit he may be in San Diego, MLB Trade Rumors has Headley projected to make just $3MM in his second year of arbitration, so he’s neither overpaid nor particularly expensive. Depending on how you feel about his defensive ability– something I honestly can’t really speak to– he’s no worse than a league average player, which, at the right price, is a plenty valuable asset even for a rebuilding team like the Padres. The reality is, the Padres might not be all that eager to trade Headley, especially since they’d be selling pretty low on him. So for an inquiring team, the hope has to be that the Padres are motivated to leverage a player about whom they know they’ll have a mutual understanding of with another club.
Headley has enough upside, and is enough of a fit for the Cubs that I think they ought to listen if the Padres ask for a return that seems like a tad much for a third baseman coming off a 4 homer campaign. If Josh Byrnes demands that talks start with Josh Vitters, I think Theo and Jed ought to seriously consider it. The thought of giving up on a 22-year old who was the third overall selection in his draft is a troubling one on some level, but there are a number of red flags in Vitters’ game. Not only is he allergic to walking, but like I mentioned earlier, his days as a third baseman are probably numbered. The Padres may not feel that way though, and might see enough upside in him to make a deal worthwhile on their end.
The Cubs have openly expressed a motivation to get more left-handed at the plate, and there are only a few places on the diamond they can manage to make that happen. Headley may not be a cornerstone of the next championship caliber team, but that doesn’t mean he isn’t a good fit for a rebuilding team badly in need of a third baseman. Jed Hoyer is undoubtedly very familiar with Headley’s game, and we can’t just disregard the possibility he may be more prepared to extract him from San Diego than any other major league executive. Exactly what it would cost the Cubs to make this deal is debatable, but something tells me Headley isn’t so valuable to the Padres that they can’t be swayed by a fair deal. If the Padres give any indication that they’d listen on Headley, in my opinion the Cubs would do well to make a strong offer.
I’m with you that Headley is a solid option if the Padres are open to a deal. I thought I had read somewhere though (maybe MLBTR), that they aren’t too motivated to move him right now. My choice for the Cubs at 3B is to make a trade with the Rockies for Ian Stewart. Stewart’s also a lefty, and while he’s probably not as safe as Headley, I think Stewart may have more upside. Stewart has been the victim of bad luck and the Rockies do not seem committed to him at all, so I think he could be acquired for cheaper than Headley. Stewart owns a career .192 ISO, and a BB rate of 10.3%, compared to Headley at .123 and 9.6%. At 26, Stewart is also a year younger than Headley.
Stewart is an interesting name if for no other reason than, like you said, he’s probably very available. I suppose the Cubs could go a worse direction at third. The thing is, Stewart is sort of the opposite of Chase Headley in the sense that if Stewart was gonna turn into a good player, we probably would’ve seen some of that by now. Whereas Headley badly needs to get out of his home park, Stewart has had the benefit of playing his home games in Colorado. Also, I’m a little reluctant to chalk up Stewart’s struggles to luck because of his huge strikeout, and swinging strike rates. Stewart’s just got a ton of swing and miss in him, which pretty much explains why he’s a career .236 hitter.
I must have missed the thing about Headley at MLBTR, but I wouldn’t be surprised to know that’s true. I can see why the Padres are super motivated to make a deal right now. But I just feel like he isn’t such a valuable guy that if they wouldn’t made a deal for the right package. I think Vitters might be of some interest to them, and if the Cubs threw in another prospect with some upside–not that the Cubs have a ton of those to spare–, I think there’s a deal to be had.
Agreed, I think the Padres would listen. Who knows how accurate this is, but heck out the last bullet on the first column here: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/chase_headley/
Although just now mlbtr posted a Padres notes that included:
“Also from Center, GM Josh Byrnes is “actively talking trade with a number of clubs.” Center lists Maybin, Nick Hundley, Mat Latos and Anthony Rizzo as “the only players who I believe are close to untouchable.”"
Yeah, see I don’t think there’s anyways the Padres just won’t listen on Headley. He’s got some value, so the Cubs wouldn’t be able to get him for nothing, but I still think he could be a little undervalued right now. I don’t it would be an overpay if the Cubs offered Josh Vitters for him.
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Personally, I would go in house with an open competition between Ryan Flaherty, DJ LaMahieu, and the platoon combo of Baker/Dewitt (or possibly Baker/Flaherty). Flaherty’s bat is major league quality, and I expect him to be given 3rd base at Iowa, if not the big club, while Vitters should remain at AA, or possibly move to 1st base.
A Flaherty/Baker platoon isn’t the worst idea ever, and it’s something I’ve thought about before, but DJ LeMahieu’s name absolutely should not be in consideration. I made this point over at Bleacher Nation the other day– LeMahieu has 7 home runs in 1,132 career minor league ABs, and he’s walked in ~6% of his ABs. Those are insufficient secondary skills for a third baseman. Maybe down the road if he grows into some more power he could get a shot, but right now I think it would be detrimental to both the Cubs and LeMahieu if he was allowed to play everyday at third.
If the Cubs can sign Prince Fielder, then I’d be a lot more comfortable going in house with a platoon. Flaherty’s put up strong numbers, but he’s been old for his leagues, it would be hard to trust him right away.
I think you’re sorta right about Flaherty– he’s been slow to adjust to each new level. But I do like him, and I think he’s gonna be a useful big leaguer, but it may be something of a leap to give him the job. If they were gonna make that sorta leap though, I suppose this would be the year to do it.
As far as Fielder goes– I’m pretty sure I’m not making many friends with this opinion, but I think it would be a huge mistake for the Cubs to sign Fielder. He’s a good, if slightly overrated player, but more importantly he’s a fat, crummy defensive first baseman, which makes him a particularly bad fit for any NL team. Don’t quote me on this, but I wanna say I heard he was demanding 8 years, $200MM, which he probably won’t get, but he’ll get a massive payday regardless. If he could make the Cubs championship contenders right away, then I might feel a little differently. But he won’t, and it could be 2-3 years before he’d be a part of a World Series Contender.
People are bound to disagree with me on this one, but I’m completely against the Cubs going after Fielder.
Flaherty is not really old for his leagues. He is not young, but considering he was drafted in 2009, I think his progression has been about right. The Cubs have done him a disservice by not giving him a regular position. I think he will spend this entire year at 3rd base now that Epstein is in charge.
Theo has talked about building assets. That is one reason you might see DJ get regular time this year. He is supposedly the best pure hitter in the organization (according to BA).
In my opinion, Flaherty has been a little old for his leagues. He’s been a little slow to develop, and the pace a player develops at does, to some extent, speak to his overall ability. I like Flaherty, and I think he will be a useful big leaguer, but I just think there might be a bit of a learning curve for him in the majors.
I have to disagree with you on LeMahieu though. No matter how unlikely this team is to compete for the World Series in 2012, they can’t afford to just punt on the season either. And playing LeMahieu would essentially mean just that. He and Josh Vitters simply are not major league ready. There’s no real evidence that they are. LeMahieu got called up last year because the Cubs were terrible.
I think he’s got potential, but he needs at least one more year in the minors to see if he can make progress with his secondary skills. I’ve seen LeMahieu hit a very long home run before. He’s got some raw poewr. He’ just hasn’t shown he can tap into it consistently.
Where is Dallas McPherson when you need him? lol.
Hit 20 homers in AAA this year… but also K’ed 126 times in 392 ABs. I know you were kidding, but I thought I’d mention this anyways.
Most people don’t feel that Fielder is a bad defensive player. In fact, most people who have seen him regularly talk about how athletic he is (supposedly he can dunk a basketball). His defensive metrics are not bad either. Sveum seems to think he is a pretty solid defender. I think you are stereotyping his defense due to his size.
I’d be surprised to know that “most” people don’t feel Fielder is a bad defensive player. I don’t put so much stock in defensive metrics– and his really aren’t good– that I think this isn’t debatable thing, but I’m pretty sure there’s more or less a consensus on how good Fiedler is defensively. It isn’t a stereotype. He’s not a contributor on defense.
More importantly, I think it’s really all about taking his body type and projecting it 4-6 years into the future. Needless to say, Fielder isn’t settling for less than 5 years, no matter what. It isn’t unreasonable to be concerned with his size, and how it could affect him in his 30s.
Offense has to come from somewhere. Prince should be performing at a prime level for at a minimum the next three years, and most likely the next five. The guy walked more than he struck out last year….I’ll take that and 40 bombs in the middle of the lineup at the expense of slightly below average defense. If they could sign him to a 5-year deal, that would be huge.
Yeah, Kyle, if all it took were five years, I think the Cubs would have to give him a lot more consideration. But I just don’t think there’s any way he settles for less than 6 years. Pretty sure his initial demands are for 8 years.
You’re right that offense has to come from somewhere, but I’m not sure that’s sufficient to say the Cubs have to break the bank to find it. And really, it has less to do with Fielder’s poor defense, and more to do with the fact that halfway through his deal, the only glove he may have any business wearing is a batting glove; we’re talking about potentially a huge commitment to a DH. How’d that work out with Alfonso Soriano?
I am not talking about most people on a message board. I am talking most people on ESPN, MLB, etc. I have heard several of them talk about him, and Sveum who was on his team the past 2 years.
I agree about the body type though, and I would NOT under any circumstances want him for 8 years, and only do 7 years as a vesting option.
Yeah, I’m not necessarily saying you’re wrong, Dale. Evaluating defense is a very subjective exercise. Although I still think you would find a consensus among talent evaluators that Prince is pretty bad there. Just my guess, and like you said, of greater concern is the body type, and the potential for it to force him to DH sooner rather than later.
Personally, I would like to see the Cubs make a deal with the Reds, trading Garza and Marmol, asking for Alonso, Grandal, Todd Frazier and either Wood or Bailey.
Dale, that’s not a totally unrealistic trade scenario. I think Alonso would be a terrific get for the Cubs. But I’m not of the opinion that they need help at catcher, and I’m not sure it makes sense for them to cash in their second best asset for a package with a catcher near the center of the deal. And you could argue Todd Frazier is sort of a Ryan Flaherty clone, who hits right handed.
Realistically, the fact that this is an intradivision trade makes it sorta unlikely. There should be mutual concern over how the centerpieces of this deal could come back to hurt the team shipping them out of town. Matt Garza is a really good pitcher, and the Cubs would be helping their division rival quite a bit by giving him to them. But Alsono also has a lot of potential. It’s an interesting scenario, but I wouldn’t make this deal if it were offered to me. I think Matt Garza should be a big part of the Cubs’ future, and I’d rather see him get extended sometime in 2012.
How about just Marmol for Alonso?
The Reds are reportedly in the market for a closer, and it wouldn’t bother me that much to see Marmol close for Cincinnati for the next couple years, but the Reds would be nuts to trade 5 years of good hitter like Alonso for 2 years of a relatively expensive relief pitcher. Maybe the Reds would be interested if the entire size of the trade were expanded, but a one-for-one deal like this isn’t gonna happen.
I have been saying all offseason that Marmol should be traded, though, and I still feel that way. I think the Cubs have a great opportunity to capitalize on the market for closers right now. If they eat something like $4-5MM of what he’s due over the next two years, I think the Cubs could fetch a good player for him. This should be one of the top priorities of the offseason.
Alonsos defense is TERRIBLE, even at 1b. Notice that the Reds are dangling Alonso, and not the very expensive Joey Votto? Votto is at least a decent defender. Alonso is a DH, period. The Reds need to look at an AL team to trade him to, he does appear to have .300/25 HR potential. The Cubs need to forget about the likes of Alosno, there infield defense last year was already bad, even with a solid defender at 1b like Pena.
I’m not sure any perceived defensive issues with Alonso should prevent the Cubs from making a deal if that became an option. I realize I was making essentially the opposite argument with Fielder, but this is a different case, really. Alonso is young enough that even if he doesn’t do a great job at 1B, he can probably be counted on to stick there until he reaches free agency. And another big consideration– Alonso may cost a lot to acquire in terms of talent, but wherever he lands, he’s not going to cost very much money at all, so a team won’t be completely locked into him the way a team will be after giving Fielder 6-8 years.
I agree the Cubs infield defense is a concern, but it isn’t enough of one that it makes sense passing on a young hitter with upside like Alonso. Ultimately, I doubt the they get really involved in discussions with the Reds, but if a deal could be made, it makes sense on a lot of levels for this team.
Why don’t the Cubs just say to heck with it and sign Fielder and Pujols and then we have a solution for both corners of the infield…. someone best be coming up with some money!!!!
…Albert has played a little 3B before… I sense you might be joking, but I’m gonna stick to the same thing I’ve been saying all offseason– I don’t think the Cubs get Pujols or Fielder, and I don’t even expect them to try all that hard either.
The deal I would most like to see is Zambrano (and 13 million), and Marmol to the Marlins for Logan Morrison. Seems like a good match for both teams given their needs/wants.
Dale, I was ALL ABOUT Logan Morrison to the Cubs earlier this offseason. I kept saying to my buddies that was THE deal that had to get done. And I thought Zambrano and Marmol would be a good place to start. Since then, though, the Marlins have supposedly told people that Morrison isn’t really available, and that they’d pretty much have to be blown away to deal him. There are a lot of reasons to think they’d have interest in Z and Marmol, but I think Morrison would cost even more than that.
If they could someone make a deal like that, it would be a home run. If you’re against a Pujols or Fielder signing, Logan Morrison might be the best player the Cubs could realistically target this offseason.
The biggest thing Theo said when he got here was ” we need to get assets”. Im not going to say they wont sign prince or albert but they shouldn’t. If i was theo i trade Garza, Z, Marmol, Byrd,soto and soriano this off season. He said they were allowed to eat any amount of payroll this off season. eat whatever you can on Z, soriano and Byrd. They can contend in two years if he gets ready major leaguers. I like your idea on Headley i think he would put up better numbers in the centeral cause of all the friendly hitting parks in the centeral.I think it would take Mcnutt and someone else to get headley cause vitters isnt enough. I think Theo can trade garza to the marlins and get Morrison and a solid minor league pitcher in return. I alo think Theo can package Marmol and a minor leaguer to pry away adam lind from the blue jays cause they will trade him.
Theo is going to sign guys like maholm and francis on 1 or 2 year deals so if they gain value he can trade them at the deadline. Say Theo trades soriano, byrd and Zambrano, which would be a miracle he could hav alot of trading chips in Dempster and maholm and Francis. Possible Garza if he isnt traded this off season. If the cubs spend less money now which would be a smart thing based on this years free agent class. They could spend money on next years free agent crop which is loaded with Aces
I know im just talking away here but why dont you like Lemahieu. I know he is not flashy and has no power but all he does his hit. His OBP is not that bad. In modern baseball i dont understand why firstbasemen and thirdbasemen hav to hav all this power. He hit awesome with runners in scoring postion. Im not saying he should be the third basemen but he should play over darwin barney. Barney never hit over 300 in the minors and DJ has never hit under 300 . I mean in full years in the minors not every promotion. Barney will play defense but i think DJ would hit better in every cateagory and prolly steal more bases.
Secondary skills are important for a third baseman, and LeMahieu’s got almost none to speak of. He’s a career .317 hitter in the minors, but especially if he’s gonna swing at everything you throw at him, there’s no way he’ll approach that figure in the big leagues. Even if you thought he could hit .300, it’d be the epitome of an “empty” .300. I’m not saying he isn’t a decent prospect, or that he’s got no future as a big leaguer, but rather he just needs a lot more seasoning before he’s ready.
My problem with your overall plan here, is that the Cubs can’t afford to completely suck this year, and if they trade Garza, Byrd, Soto, and Zambrano, that’s exactly what would happen. Logan Morrison and Chase Headley are good players, but neither of them pitch; this team just can’t afford to be giving away pitchers, much less a very good one like Garza.
I think as soon as this June the Cubs should look into dealing one or both of Soto and Byrd, but now would be too soon. Brett Jackson has enough downside potential for 2012, that it wouldn’t make sense to ditch Byrd before Jackson shows he can make some adjustments. And I’m as big on Welington Castillo as anyone, but trading Soto now would just be selling low. If he puts together a couple of solid months to start 2012, he could be an extremely valuable trade asset, which this team sorely needs.
Cubs are not going to suck this year.
Here is what Theo is planning. He is going to trade valuable major league pieces for multiple prospect pieces. This means Garza, Dempster, Byrd, and Marmol. This is how he will restock the farm system. Then he will be rebuild the team through free agency, especially now that you really don’t have to give up picks for (most of) the players.
Trade Garza for (example) 2 or 3 top Yankee prospects. Sign Buehrle. This is how I see Theo working the new system. Free agents now have more value since you don’t give up picks. Expect Theo to take advantage.
I’d honestly be really surprised if he traded either of Dempster or Byrd. Garza and Marmol are definite possibilites, but Dempster doesn’t so have much trade value that it makes sense to pass on the innings he’s a near-lock to provide. And with Byrd, I just think there’s too much downside with Brett Jackson in the near term for them to just give him the CF job on Opening Day.
You make some fair points regarding free agents and the new CBA. The new rules figure to make a slow rebuild even slower if the Cubs were to stick exclusively to building from within. Free agents are effectively more valuable now, and it’s likely that the Cubs will be more active in that market going forward. We’ll have to wait and see how much in impacts them this offseason, though.
I agree with what u said on DJ but i still think he can play better then Barney. I do think they can totally suck this year and the fans would be fine with that. Only if the Cubs put a good foundation of youth on the field that year. Everyone knows next year we arent going to be good. So sell high on the pieces u can like Garza. I guess you can wait till the deadline to deal byrd and soto to maybe boost their value a little. Marmol value is only going to get worse. I still think with a good not great spring Jackson will start the season with the cubs. If they go that route i think theo and jed need to explain their plan and the real fans will understand. I think when you trade Z and garza they sign players like Mahol and francis to just fill the holes.
There are some clear incentives for the Cubs to not suck. We saw this year that fans are prepared to just not show up if the team isn’t winning, and it really doesn’t make sense to not try and pack the place when you know you only have to be decent to do it. Theo said himself that everyone opportunity to win is sacred, so the Cubs will, for good reason, not be punting on the 2012 season.
DJ may be Barney’s offensive equal now, but he certainly isn’t the same kind of defender Barney is, and that matters for this team, given how bad they are everywhere else defensively. Barney can’t hit, but LeMahieu wouldn’t be much better this year, and he wouldn’t provide the defense Barney does. LeMahieu belongs in the minors.
I also have to disagree with you when it comes to Jackson. Unless he goes nuts in spring training, I’ll be surprised if he doesn’t spend the first two months of the year in the minors. Not only would that present some future cost savings for the Cubs, but it would give Jackson a shot to improve on his strikeout tendencies before he’s up in the majors for good.
Actually, many things I have read say that LaMahieu is a very good defensive 2nd baseman. I think people assume Barney gets to everything, but he is the classic little man who seems to have more range than he does, simply because his strides are shorter than a guy like LaMahieu.
Lamahieu is 6’4″ tall. He covers a ton of ground. Barney is listed at 5’10″, but I bet that is a stretch. He looks considerably shorter to me.
LaMahieu is the bigger upside guy. BA lists him as the best pure hitter in the organization. Power would not be as big of a deal at 2nd base. I would be willing to trade Barney to a team needing a shortstop or 2nd baseman in a package with another deal. Or I am fine with keeping him and letting them compete for 2nd base, or let him be the utility guy, but you are not going to need him much with Castro there.
Let me say this as well, I am fine with Barney on the team, provided you have production everywhere else. I like that he does the little things to help the team, but I don’t think that necessarily outweighs greater production.
I agree with your last sentiment on Barney. As long as you can compensate elsewhere for his bat, I also don’t mind having someone in the lineup that does everything else well except hit. However, I disagree with you on Barney’s range, and his size affecting people’s perception of it. Coming up through the minors, scouts consistently lauded his defense. Some have said he is, and has been for awhile, one of the best defensive players in all of professional baseball. I think one reason it makes a lot of sense for the Cubs to hang onto Barney is in case Starlin outgrows shortstop before too much longer. Say that happens within the next couple years, the Cubs would still have a very cheap player who could be an asset with his defense at SS.
LeMahieu does have some upside; I’m really not trying to hate on the guy. I just don’t think he’s all that close to being big league ready. Unless he takes a huge step forward with his secondary skills this year, I think he’s best served getting more seasoning in AAA.